How low can EUR/USD go? Short-term rate spreads continue to move against EUR/USD as does the risk environment. The pair could fall as low as 0.95, according to economists at ING.

Don’t look for a substantial turn higher in EUR/USD this summer

“A 10% fall in equities and a 25 bps widening in spreads this summer would put EUR/USD somewhere near 0.98.”

“A 50 bps widening in spreads, were the Fed to move more aggressively or ECB hawks to soften, would be worth 0.95.”

“Don’t look for a substantial turn higher in EUR/USD this summer, since it seems far too early for Fed hawks to back down.”