Analysts at Societe Generale offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision due to be announced at 1215 GMT.

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Key quotes

“First rate hike in 11 years (25 bps) to be announced.”

“Anti-fragmentation mechanism is to be launched, to support vulnerable countries.”

“While downside risks to growth have increased, for now, the guidance for a possible 50 bps hike in September is likely to remain in place, partly linked to the fact that the inflation forecast will need to be revised up again in September, at least with regard to the short-term.”

“No new staff forecasts will be presented, but an updated assessment is likely to point to high uncertainty, in particular over the energy supply situation. Risks to inflation remain to the upside, while risks to growth remain to the downside.”