The price action in the Brazilian real in Q3 so far has been in line with a cautiously bullish view. However, economists at Commerzbank expect the USD/BRL pair to turn back higher. 

Political risks are likely to remain a burdening factor

“In a market environment dominated by risk-off and with the end of the BCB's rate hike cycle in sight, the BRL is likely to struggle to maintain or even extend recent gains against the USD.” 

“Political risks in the wake of the upcoming presidential elections in October are likely to remain a burdening factor.”