The S&P 500 Index now face a key test of technical resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA), potential downtrend and 61.8% retracement at 4327/70, with Credit Suisse’s bias for a potentially important top here.

Weekly MACD momentum maintains its bullish cross

“Although weekly MACD momentum has crossed higher, we continue to look for a potentially important top at the falling 200-DMA, potential downtrend from the beginning of the year and 61.8% retracement of the 2022 fall at 4327/70.”

“Near-term support is seen at 4177, with a break below 4117/07 seen as needed to add weight to our view for a fall back to the 63-day average, now at 3974.”

“A close above 4370 would suggest strength can extend further, with resistance seen next at 4513, then the 78.6% retracement of the 2022 fall at 4566.”