Further tightening of monetary policy may temporarily hamper the current price recovery, which is why strategists at Commerzbank are lowering their gold price forecast for the end of the year to $1,800. The yellow metal is expected to regain a lot of its shine from the turn of the year onwards though.

Too early for a real comeback of gold

“In the short-term, gold could come under pressure again because the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates further until the end of the year.”

“As soon as it becomes apparent that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end, the gold price should start to rise. This is likely to be the case in the fourth quarter.”

“The price increase should gain momentum when noticeable Fed rate cuts become apparent, which we expect from mid-2023 onwards. Gold should thus regain its strength significantly next year.”

“We are revising our gold price forecast for the end of the year downwards to $1,800 (previous forecast $1,900). Next year, gold should rise to $1,900 (previously $2,000).