The Bank of England (BoE) remains torn between a weak growth outlook and near-record inflation. Economists at TD Securities revise their Bank Rate profile, and now expect sharp hikes in the near-term, followed by cuts once the wage-price link has been broken.

A more hawkish BoE, for now

“We now expect the MPC to deliver sequential 50 bps hikes at its September and November meetings, before slowing to a 25 bps hike in December.”

“We expect policy to remain on hold from the start of 2023, with 25 bps cuts coming from August to December that year, and a final 25 bps cut in 2024 to take Bank Rate to its neutral 1.75% rate.” 

“Our new profile sees Bank Rate reach a peak of 3.00% from December this year, still well below the market's expectation of a 4.00% terminal rate.”