Russia will not be supplying natural gas to Germany until further notice. Can Germany close the natural gas gap? Strategists at Commerzbank try to give an answer.

Rationing threatens in winter

“In the best-case scenario (the 80 TWh gas gap) and a mild winter, supply could just about be met through conservation and stock withdrawals, even without the resumption of Russian supplies.”

“A gas gap of 245 TWh would require savings of 195 TWh in the next 12 months. Although extremely high prices provide a significant incentive for savings, this does not appear achievable. Rationing is probably inevitable in this case. In that case, the recession we already expect would be much more severe.”