AUD/USD touched a new two-year low just under 0.64 on Friday. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the pair to extend its decline towards 0.62.

Aussie unable to benefit from commodities boon

“We remain bearish on AUD, despite the seemingly obvious appeal of a sharp increase in Australian terms of trade. We now target 0.6200 and see AUD/USD trading in a 0.6100-0.6750 range in Q4.”

“Despite Australia’s status as a major energy and metals exporter, AUD is still unlikely to see proportional gains from higher global prices of commodities, as export revenues are increasingly recycled into dividend and interest payments to foreign owners of local mining assets.”  

“Reduced trade with China, due to soft local demand and ongoing diplomatic tension between the two countries, adds to the disconnect between commodities prices and AUD.”