Rising energy prices are a burden for the euro. Therefore, economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/USD pair to remain below parity for now.

Considerable risk for the euro if the upward trend in energy prices continues

“The price increase on the energy markets and thus the negative effect on the euro is still limited. But there is a considerable risk for the euro exchange rate if the upward trend in energy prices continues. In particular, it would become critical for the single currency if price levels such as those seen in the middle of the year were to be reached again.”

“For the time being, uncertainty regarding the energy crisis in Europe is likely to remain high, which is why the EUR/USD exchange rate is likely to trade below rather than above parity for some time to come.”