US inflation was again higher than expected in September. Further significant rate hikes are thus virtually certain, in the opinion of economists at Commerzbank.

Inflation data seal big rate hikes

“Today's figures confirm the Fed top officials' fear that inflation is more stubborn than previously expected. Even if energy prices settle down over the next few months, inflation is likely to fall only slightly and remain far higher than the Fed's 2% target.”

“The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting reflects the Fed's determination to bring inflation back under control. Monetary policy would have to become /appropriately/ restrictive to achieve this, and the Fed would have to maintain this course of action even in the event of a weakening labor market. Further significant rate hikes are thus virtually certain.” 

“We continue to expect another large rate hike of 75 bps at the meeting in early November, and we forecast rates to peak at 5%.”