There is an elevated risk that Japanese authorities will intervene in the FX market to support the yen today. Economists at ING expect the USD/JPY pair to hover around the 150 level for the time being.

More intervention increasingly likely

“We are not making the argument that there is a clear line in the sand at 150.00 for Japanese authorities (the whole idea of a ‘line in the sand’ in the current FX market appears unrealistic), but it’s likely that allowing a move above 150.00 may well trigger an acceleration of the JPY sell-off which is exactly what Japan is trying to avoid.”

“Our view is that a prolonged FX intervention campaign in Japan will keep USD/JPY around 150.00 into year-end.”