The euro remains heavy despite higher-than-expected Eurozone Preliminary Inflation data. Economists at BBH expect the EUR/USD pair to challenge the October 21 low around 0.9705 on a move under 0.9855.

Eurozone October CPI came in hot

“A break below 0.9855 is needed to set up a test of the October 21 low near 0.9705.”

“Headline came in at 10.7% YoY vs. 10.3% expected and 9.9% in September, while core came in as expected at 5.0% YoY vs. 4.8% in September. These readings will keep pressure on the ECB to continue tightening aggressively even as the eurozone slips into recession. As a result, ECB tightening expectations remain heightened. The problem is that the eurozone is already tipping into recession even as the ECB tightens aggressively.”