The exciting question for 2023 will be to what extent the monetary policy approach amongst Riksbank board members will change in 2023. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how change could affect the Swedish Krona.

How does Riksbank’s board change?

“New members will be Aino Bunge, who took up her position on 1st December, and Erik Thedeen, who will take over from Ingves on 1st January. Both of them come from the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, and the meeting in February will be their first rate decision. If there is a stalemate amongst the 6 board members Thedeen’s vote is decisive.”

“The current implied rate path might not be sufficient to get a grip on inflation. This is where the new board members come in: if they tend more towards a dovish approach the Riksbank is likely to stick to its approach, which would be neutral for the Krona. If they turn out to be hawks, the Riksbank might adjust its rate path to the upside if the latest inflation data surprises on the upside once more.” 

“However, we are only likely to find out about this in February unless Thedeen and Bunge make comments in one or the other direction beforehand.”