GBP is ending the year down around 11.6% vs, the USD and down 4.2% vs. the EUR. Economists at Rabobank expect UK fundamentals to remain sour in the months ahead.

Weak investment growth and low productivity levels 

“For the GBP outlook to significantly advance it is likely that investment and productivity growth will have to show signs of improvement. This may require more visible leadership from PM Sunak, though divisions in his own party will likely prove difficult to manage.”

“Additionally, while a workable solution over the Northern Ireland protocol could bring fresh clarity over the UK’s relationship with Europe, this remains a deeply challenging issue.”

“We continue to view the Pound as vulnerable and expect EUR/GBP to creep towards 0.90 on a six to nine-month view.”