Overall US inflation has peaked, services inflation continues to be painfully persistent.

We see the Fed increasing its terminal rate to just under 5.5% by next May and holding rates at that level through the end of next year.

I think a recession is likely to happen in the US sometime in the second half of 2023.

No part of the industry has felt the impact of the macro environment more than investment banking.

A stalled deal environment made 2022 a difficult year across the board.

We are moving forward with winding down our consumer business in Russia and will be ending nearly all institutional banking services there by the end of Q1 2023.

If the BOJ were to make additional adjustments, they could well spur further yen strength, dragging down not only corporate earnings (and the equity market) but potentially the inflation outlook as well.

As an industry, I believe we're much better positioned, well capitalized and more resilient than we were in 2008.