The most likely outcome is that inflation will fall quite rapidly this year, probably starting in the late spring.
There is more optimism now that we are going to get through the next year with an easier path on inflation.
We don’t target a particular peak for rates.
I am not endorsing a 4.5% bank rate peak, but in December is that we did not include the comment about the market being in our view rather out of line
We think there will be a recession.
The recession will be a shallow one by historic standards.
The labour force has shrunk, and that is putting pressure on the labour market.