EUR/USD is virtually unchanged on a daily basis. Economists at BBH expect the pair to test March high around 1.1185 on a break past the April peak of 1.0935.

Hard to see how the Eurozone does not avoid recession

“The Euro is trading flat after making a new cycle high today near 1.0925, just shy of the April high near 1.0935. Break above that would set up a test of the March high near 1.1185.”

“Yes, some sentiment indicators have improved in recent months but the bulk of the ECB’s 250 bps of tightening so far hasn’t really been felt yet due to the lags in monetary policy. With another 150 bps of tightening expected this year, it’s hard to see how the Eurozone doesn’t avoid recession. The warmer-than-normal weather has helped, as has news of China reopening, but we don’t think that’s enough to stave off recession.”