Economists at the Bank of America Global Research see scope for a mild recession this year in the United States and hold a bearish USD view.

Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024

“We expect a mild recession starting mid-2023 and Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024. For 2023, the market expects a much milder recession, with the Fed still hiking rate 1-2 more times before slightly cutting rates in second half of the year.”

“For now, we still hold a bearish USD view for the medium term; 2023 playing out in line with leading indicator historical precedents would increase the upside risk to our bearish USD outlook.”