The Zloty should benefit from a stronger Euro in 2023. However, economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/PLN to move back higher in 2024.

Rising EUR/PLN rates in 2024

“We forecast the Euro to appreciate further through the rest of 2023 but weaken once again during 2024. Given the Zloty’s high-beta relationship to the Euro, we see EUR/PLN drifting down to around 4.65 by the end of 2023 as inflation moderates globally, which will alter perceptions about Poland’s negative real interest rate.”

“In 2024, we forecast EUR/PLN to rise again towards 4.80 as inflation will likely remain stubbornly above target.”

Source: Commerzbank Research