How difficult or easy is the projection of EUR/USD exchange rates? Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, believes that the analysis of EUR/USD is quite easy at present.

EUR/USD rising to 1.10 again is the most sensible forecast

“If the market bets on disinflation that is good for the Euro, if the focus is on the risk of inflation (as is the case right now) that is positive for the Dollar.”

“I am only trying to say that whenever the risk of inflation increases that is good for the Dollar, and this is neither affected by economic framework conditions nor small differences in the risks of inflation on either side of the Atlantic.”

“I cannot promise firmly that EUR/USD will rise to 1.10 again. Only that based on the information currently available this forecast is the most sensible one. That is how you should look at our projections.”