In early February EUR/USD traded at these 1.05 levels already. Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research, analyzes the pair’s outlook.

1.20 is totally unrealistic at present

“Being a safe haven is an attractive characteristic. Because it is the Dollar that possesses this characteristic, rather than the Euro as used to be the case, that means that EUR/USD exchange rates that used to be obtainable are no longer realistic from my point of view. To be precise: 1.20 is totally unrealistic at present.”

“Don’t get me wrong. 1.10 might be overly cautious, we can talk about that. And we reserve the right to adjust the EUR/USD target slightly to the upside, but as long as the described environment does not change fundamentally, I will stick to my view: the EUR/USD exchange rate is very limited on the upside.”