EUR/USD is dragged up by buoyant market sentiment. But the pair needs a soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to break past the 1.10 level, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

EUR/USD needs more help from relative rates

“The MOVE index of bond volatility has fallen sharply from its March spike. With FX volatility at its lowest level of 2023 and the Vix falling, the SG Sentiment Indicator back into risk-seeking territory, helping EUR/USD as we head to today’s US CPI data.”

“However, sentiment can only do so much, and EUR/USD is rising more than relative rates warrant, so we will need soft CPI data to justify a move through 1.10. Our forecast of headline CPI falling to 5.1% YoY. while the core measure edges up to 5.6% wouldn’t be enough.” 

See – US CPI: Banks Preview, inflation softening, good news on the horizon?