Economists at Commerzbank discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and its implications for the EUR/USD pair.

Current EUR/USD levels are fundamentally justified

“We believe that the market's expectations of a rate hike of almost 75 bps are too optimistic. As a result, sooner or later a correction will be necessary and the Euro is unlikely to escape unscathed. Nevertheless, we believe that the current EUR/USD levels are fundamentally justified.”

“For the Euro, it does not matter whether the interest rate peak is 25 bps higher or lower. The key point is that the ECB is likely to maintain this level of interest rates on the back of higher inflation. Today's ECB meeting is unlikely to change this view, even if the ECB cannot avoid the start of discussions about an end to the rate hike cycle. And especially as long as the immediate factors of uncertainty are primarily of a US nature (debt ceiling, stress in the financial sector), any setback in EUR/USD should remain limited.”