Economists at Commerzbank have changed their EUR/PLN forecast path only slightly lower.

Euro to remain strong through 2023

“We forecast the Euro to remain strong through 2023, but weaken once again during 2024.”

“Given the Zloty’s high-beta relationship to the Euro, we see EUR/PLN rising again towards 4.75 as inflation in Poland will likely remain stubbornly above target.”

“Our base-case remains that inflation will moderate noticeably over the coming quarters, but not converge fully to target, hence we see 2024 as a potential Zloty-negative period.”

Source: Commerzbank Research