EUR/SEK is approaching the April highs. Near-term vulnerabilities remain elevated, and ING’s baseline scenario for a SEK recovery in the second half of the year faces rising risks.

Riksbank has made the SEK’s path to recovery even narrower

“In the near term, EUR/SEK may well break through the 11.43 April highs and test the 11.50/11.60 area unless the FX market shifts more decisively in favour of high-beta currencies. Even in that scenario, we think EUR/SEK should still find support around 11.20/11.25 given the Riksbank’s unfavourable narrative for SEK.”

“In the longer run, we still think that a stabilisation in risk appetite, and a rotation from the dollar to favour European currencies in the second half of the year can help a gradual decline to the 11.00 area in EUR/SEK. But the Riksbank has likely made the path for the SEK recovery an even narrower one.”