Ahead of tomorrow's May Nonfarm Payrolls report, today sees the release of ISM Manufacturing, Initial Claims and the ADP employment report. A slightly better external environment – China's small-business PMI was better than expected in May – could see the Dollar edge marginally lower were US data to come in on the soft side today.

However, we doubt the USD will go too far ahead of tomorrow's more important jobs and wage data. DXY could trade in a 104.00-104.50 range and if the Fed policy rate could be flatlining after all this summer then expect further interest in the carry trade. Here, USD/JPY could grind back to the 141 area.