The Fed will be ending its hiking cycle sometime this year and start cutting next year. This constitutes a structural support for Gold over the medium and long term.

In addition to US recession risks creeping higher, political tensions ahead of the 2024 presidential election have also increased. Against such a backdrop, investors tend to increase their portfolio allocations to Gold for hedge purposes. We thus expect ETF holdings to build their Gold positions in the remainder of the year. With the tactical selling recently, there is now more scope to go long. We see more buying emerging at current price levels, with our year-end target at $2,100.