24-hour view: After NZD rebounded from a low of 0.6118 last Friday, we indicated yesterday that “the rebound in oversold conditions suggests NZD is unlikely to weaken further.” We expected NZD to consolidate and trade in a range of 0.6130/0.6190. In line with our expectations, NZD consolidated, albeit in a narrower range than anticipated (0.6139/0.6177). Today, NZD could continue to consolidate, likely between 0.6135 and 0.6180. 

Next 1-3 weeks: We highlighted yesterday (26 Jun, spot at 0.6150) that “downward momentum has improved a tad but NZD has to break clearly below 0.6100 before a sustained decline is likely.” We added, “the chance of NZD breaking clearly below 0.6100 is not high for now but it would remain intact as long as NZD stays below 0.6210 (‘strong resistance’ level) in the next few days.” We continue to hold the same view.