It is not the economy that is decisive for the ECB’s monetary policy decisions but inflation developments. From Wednesday the first estimates for June from Eurozone countries will be published, with the overall inflation rate for the Eurozone following on Friday. 

There are concerns that core inflation will remain stubborn. Against this background, it is likely to be premature from the market’s point of view to bet on an imminent pause in the ECB rate cycle at this stage. For that reason, the data might provide support for EUR this week.