We expect Yen gains versus the US Dollar over time, although that timing is very dependent on US recession and the precise timing of aggressive Fed easing. Instead, we see scope for steadier Yen outperformance versus the Euro over time. 

The JPY should benefit from a hawkish Bank of Japan policy adjustment in Q4-2023, and outpace Euro gains against a backdrop of only moderate Eurozone growth and an end to European Central Bank (ECB) monetary tightening. 

The Yen should continue to steadily outperform in 2024, helped by a shift by the ECB, along with many other G10 and emerging central banks, to monetary policy easing.