US markets re-open today and we expect some pick up in FX volatility, with both Fed communication and data coming into focus.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting are the main highlight. Overall, the dot plot projections and the post-meeting Fed communication suggest that markets may not find many hints to recalibrate their tightening expectations lower today. If anything, the trigger for such a dynamic would be weak US data. 

On Wednesday, the calendar is not particularly heavy in the US: factory orders for May and the final print of durable goods orders. Thursday’s ISM services and ADP employment figures are a bigger risk event for the Dollar.