Postponing the looming recession any further threatens a resurgence in real wages that could keep the Fed on its warpath against inflation. However, we expect that data trends will likely sufficiently soften to keep the Fed from further pursuing its warpath against inflation, particularly as the more cyclical components of growth data are already deteriorating at a fast pace. 

This places significant attention on the ISM services and jobs data, where Gold's reaction function may be asymmetrically skewed to the upside on misses in the data.