The setup for H2 will hinge on a few fluid narratives that have played out through H1. The major questions are about the impact of good news. Is good news good for markets or bad for markets? Put another way, should we cheer on positive data surprises or worry about them? We think the former, suggesting that good growth news should be welcome, especially if it dovetails with continued disinflation.

This week's US inflation release will set the tone. We're below consensus, looking for a 0.2% MoM print that should reinforce that disinflation plus positive growth news is bad for the USD and good for risk.