There is not much European data today and instead, it looks as though EUR/USD will continue to trade on the soggy side through the session – especially since some of the China stimulus-powered rally in related asset classes (e.g., China mainland equities) looks to be petering out.

We had targeted EUR/USD at 1.1050 on a slightly hawkish Fed meeting today. Softer European data has already brought us to that level. That suggests risk in EUR/USD towards 1.1000 on the back of the Fed – assuming the FX options market is correctly pricing a 60 pip range for EUR/USD over the next 24 hours.