The ECB press conference proved a negative for the Euro as ECB President Lagarde backed away from a September rate hike and seemed to acknowledge both softer activity data and welcome disinflation. This was not really a bloodbath for the Euro – indeed the trade-weighted Euro did not move too much, nor did two-year rate differentials. It just so happened that we had some strong US data coming out at the same time. 

If we are right today with our call for a soft ECI number, we could see EUR/USD breaking back above 1.1000 and starting to trace out the kind of 1.1000-1.1150 range over the coming sessions.