24-hour view: We held the view yesterday that “the strong rally in USD could extend to 143.20 before the risk of a pullback increases.” While USD rose as expected, it soared to a high of 143.54. Conditions remain severely overbought, and USD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range of 142.40/143.65. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (01 Aug, spot at 142.30), we highlighted that USD “must break and stay above 143.20 before further sustained advance is likely.” USD then soared to a high of 143.54 before closing at 143.32. While the price actions suggest USD could continue to rise, it remains to be seen if there is enough momentum to carry it to June’s high near 145.00. Meanwhile, overbought short-term conditions could lead to 1-2 days of consolidation. The upside risk is intact as long as USD stays above 141.50 (‘strong support’ level was at 140.50 yesterday).