The minutes of July’s FOMC policy meeting showed the majority of members kept seeing upside risks to the inflation outlook and left the door open for more tightening. But we think that the encouraging developments on the disinflation side mean the Fed won’t have to hike again and will instead opt for a long pause before cutting in 2024.

The Dollar is enjoying some modest bullish momentum – also helped by more worrying news from China’s real estate sector – but it may be lacking a clear catalyst to break above 104.00 (DXY) before the end of the week.