24-hour view: We did not anticipate NZD to drop to a low of 0.5901 (we were expecting it to trade in a range). While downward momentum has not improved much, there is room for NZD to retest the 0.5900 level before a more sustained rebound is likely. The next support at 0.5880 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.5940, followed by 0.5955. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our latest narrative was from Monday (25 Sep, spot at 0.5955), wherein “while upward momentum has improved slightly, NZD must break and stay above 0.6015 before a sustained advance is likely.” Yesterday (27 Sep), NZD dropped below our ‘strong support’ level of 0.5905. The breach of 0.5905 invalidated our view. Not only has upward momentum faded, but downward momentum has also built. From here, as long as NZD remains below 0.5970 (‘strong resistance’ level), it could weaken to 0.5860 in the coming days.