In its preview of China’s third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, research analysts at Standard Chartered Market noted that “consensus may have underestimated China’s Q3 GDP after overestimating Q2 GDP.”

Additional takeaways

 “In July, Bloomberg’s survey put the Q2 growth forecast at 7.0% y/y, only to be disappointed by a 6.3% print.”

“We think the gap can be explained by overly optimistic estimates for services sector growth. For Q3 GDP (to be released on 18 October), the consensus forecast is currently 4.5% y/y; we think an outcome of around 5% is more likely, based on available data for July and August and consensus estimates for September real activity.”

“We forecast Q3 growth at 5.1%, among the highest in the Bloomberg survey.”.

“We see a disconnect between consensus real activity and Q3 GDP forecasts.”