The combination of deficits projected for the balance of the year, firm demand, growing supply risks associated with the tightening of sanctions against Russia and the risk premium driven by the current Israel-Hamas conflict, prompts us to say that WTI crude will trade above the $90 mark in the final quarter of the year, with Brent coming close to the triple digit mark.

But at this point, we don’t see a surge materially above $100, as we expect OPEC+ to continue supplying crude at planned levels and we judge that the presence of the US aircraft carrier strike group and military aircraft close to Israel is likely to keep crude flowing without meaningful interruptions.