The minutes of the October RBA Board meeting read more hawkishly than the September set, particularly the comment toward the end that the ‘Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected’.

Our view is that a rate rise in November would require an uncomfortably high CPI print, possibly combined with some sign of strength in the labour market.

Pending the upcoming labour market and inflation data, we continue to expect the cash rate to remain at 4.1%. Risks of RBA action appear to be rising, however.