We’ve revised our Q4 2023 forecast for AUD/USD down to 0.62, as we expect Dollar strength to persist into year-end. Global growth headwinds are likely to continue to weigh on the AUD, as European growth rolls over and the Chinese economy remains weak. Thus, it is not until Q2 2024 when we expect AUD/USD to begin rally.

We expect the pair to eventually reach 0.68 by Q4 2024.

We also expect the RBA to hike rates once more in November. While a hike should lead to some short-term gains in AUD, we expect a stronger dollar and declining global growth to dominate AUD/USD movements.