It is highly likely that EUR/NOK will come above 12.00 this week and move around sideways toward year-end. 

If Norges Bank hikes in December, EUR/NOK is unlikely to fall more than 11.50 in the short term.

For next year, higher energy prices due to China picking up steam, a cut in NOK sales from Norges Bank from 1.4bn NOK/day to around 700m/day and lower interest rates abroad should help the NOK. This is why we see EUR/NOK at 11.50 next summer and at 11.00 by the end of 2024. 

A hard landing in the big economies, renewed inflation pressures abroad, and/or new geopolitical challenges are the main risks to our view.