We expect Oil to move back up toward between $90 and $100 a barrel, amid still rising global demand and tight supplies.

Global consumption of crude remains well supported, despite the weaker official forecast from the US.

Key Oil producers have remained disciplined on production, keeping supply tight.

The risk of a disruption to Oil production arising from the Israel-Hamas war has not gone away. Our base case is that the conflict will not escalate. However, events in the region remain fluid. The clearest threat is to Iranian output. Should Iranian crude exports fall by around 300K-500K barrels per day, this could further constrain the already undersupplied market, potentially pushing Brent prices up to $100-110/bbl. While OPEC+ has sufficient spare capacity to compensate for such a reduction in supplies, any measures could take time to calm markets. A broadening of the conflict across the region that pulled in other oil-producing countries could cause prices to rise even more, depending on the magnitude of the disruption.