Support has held around the 1.0660 area and we may be in for a quiet, range-bound week – perhaps something like 1.0635-1.0765.

As usual, there is a raft of European Central Bank speakers this week. Whilst they may hold out the threat of another hike in this cycle, the market has moved on and is now firmly exploring the idea of three ECB cuts in 2024. That is quickly raising the prospect that EUR/USD never gets a chance to rally next year if the ECB cuts rates as quickly as the Fed. 

Clearly, our modestly bullish call on EUR/USD next year faces some challenges.