While we expected USD/THB to weaken last week, we highlighted that “in view of the oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 35.05 is within reach.” We added, “Resistance is at 35.75; a breach of 36.01 would mean that USD/THB is not weakening further.” USD/THB then weakened less than expected to 35.38 before staging a surprisingly sharp rebound to 36.07.

This week, USD/THB could continue to rebound, but any advance is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 36.53 (there is another resistance at 36.35). On the downside, if USD/THB breaks below 35.65 (minor support is at 35.85), it would indicate that it is not rebounding further.