We expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) and the OCR track to be left unchanged, but it seems clear that markets are looking for a lower track (flatlined at 5.5%). While that would signal complete neutrality, the act of lowering it will be seen by markets as the first step toward easing, so if that is what we see, the Kiwi could be in for a slight fall. 

But with easier expectations built in, it’s arguably stability (or a higher track) that would have the biggest (upside) impact on the Kiwi, and it’s increasingly looking like it won’t be a snooze.