Expect the Dollar to remain very sensitive to US data, including today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which is expected to have mildly declined.

On the Fed side, there are a number of speakers to monitor: Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr. The recent drop in rates significantly increases the chances of pushbacks against rate cut speculations, which can help the Dollar rebound.

Month-end flows may get in the mix and delay a Dollar recovery, but we remain of the view that it is too early to chase the USD bear trend. There is still some resilience in US data into year-end that can prop up the high-yielding Dollar.