We do not see the case for a substantially lower EUR/CHF. Yes, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been driving it lower through FX sales, yet we argue that the SNB’s desire for a stronger Swiss Franc will wane. This is because the inflation differential to major trading partners is narrowing quickly and means less need for a stronger CHF to keep the real exchange rate stable.

We tend to think EUR/CHF will hover around the 0.95 level for most of next year. Were EUR/CHF to fall too sharply, the SNB would probably flip from being an FX seller to an FX buyer.