In terms of the risk to Sterling market interest rates and the currency from the December BoE meeting, we tend to think it is too early for the BoE to condone easing expectations – even though those expectations are substantially more modest than those on the eurozone. This could mean that EUR/GBP continues to trade on the weak side into year-end – probably in the 0.8500-0.8600 range.

Into 2024, however, we expect market pricing to correct – less to be priced for the ECB, more for the UK and EUR/GBP should head back up to the 0.88 area. But that's a story for next year.